What leads to the creation of NEETs? How much and how does dropping out of school play a role? What are the triggers? What are the consequences? In this research, Emanuela Miccoli and Flavia Verona attempt to answer these questions.

Index

Getting to NEET: school dropout

The recognition of school participation as a valuable resource for social and personal activation is widely demonstrated by theoretical models and empirical evidence 1 . Already in the Lisbon European Council of 2000, emphasis was placed on the importance of the role of education and training of young people as potential remedies to the critical issues related to the human sphere, the world of work and the socio-economic challenges that Europe was fighting and is still fighting.

In 2005, the European Commission set the goal of achieving 85% of young people aged 18 to 24 with upper secondary education. At the same time, school dropout is seen as a social and personal defeat, the underlying factors of which range from purely academic reasons (pedagogical-didactic variables), such as unsatisfactory and misleading guidance, a lack of stimulation, the inability to develop student potential, and different stratifications within education systems , to extra-scholastic ones (socio-economic variables), such as the economic and socio-cultural background and positioning of families, public investments, and 'objective' limitations or deficits. Among the most obvious consequences of school dropout is undoubtedly that of dropping out of school.

The culmination of the dispersion processes, it has a range of different semantic interpretations that start from the most widespread conception of early leavers in terms of premature abandonment of education, to drop-outs who do not obtain a final qualification, to the so-called push-outs and those 'expelled' from the school system, to the disaffiliated who feel no connection with the school and its sphere, to the stop-outs who stop their path for some time 3 . These are semantic values ​​that are also possibly overlapping with each other.

School dropout

In our study, we will advance analyses and hypotheses regarding the first identified area, as well as that relating to early school dropout . School dropout thus presents itself as an indicator of educational success, while also assuming the significance of a rethinking of the role and function of both schools and the institutions gravitating around them (from the family to public administration), acting synergistically to adopt measures appropriate to the complexity of the phenomenon.

In Europe, 16% of young people drop out of school early, a figure that is only marginally encouraging compared to the European Commission's target of reaching 10% by 2010 4 . If we consider the countries that have adopted reforms between 2015 and 2020 to achieve this goal, we observe that the figure has almost been reached, also thanks to tools adopted in Italy 5 where the results are improving, but still not encouraging.

Indeed, despite having made progress domestically, the country still appears to occupy a discouraging position internationally. Abandoning any form of methodological institutionalism and considering the comparative approach as the most appropriate for analyzing education systems, the perspective adopted is to compare the dropout phenomenon across geographical areas. The objective of this study is to observe the trend of the phenomenon in Italy and whether its intensity in different geographical areas corresponds to a certain distribution of average family income and a certain level of public investment in education, assuming that the coincidence of certain parameters is not coincidental.

1 M. Colombo, Early school dropout and policies for educational success: from research on early school leavers to innovation proposals, Erikson 2010.
2 Having to make premature choices between different educational paths can demotivate those who have not received appropriate guidance. Overly rigid educational paths can also create obstacles to completing upper secondary education.  To learn more.
3 Cfr. http://www.aiel.it/page/old_paper/santoro_verde%20.pdf

NEET and not neet: data analysis

The indicators used to provide empirical support for this research are provided by ISTAT ( National Institute of Statistics ), established in Italy in 1926. It is a public research institution that monitors demographic and social phenomena nationwide, producing and communicating statistical information, analyses, and forecasts to serve the community in various areas, including the economy, social issues, and the environment. The data produced is also disseminated through the istat.it website, its databases, and press releases.

In our analysis, we used the NoiItalia section , which provides a comprehensive overview of Italy thanks to data organized into different thematic areas, with a regional, macro-area, and European breakdown. The thematic areas from which it was possible to extract indicators suitable for this analysis are "Education and Work" ("Early School Leavers," "Young People Neither in Employment nor in Education") and "Population and Society" ("Average Net Family Income – excluding Imputed Rents," "Public Final Consumption Expenditure on Education and Training").

For a general overview of Italy's positioning in Europe based on the selected indicators, specifically those related to early school leaving and NEETs, the EUROSTAT website (the statistical office of the European Union responsible for publishing quality statistics and indicators at the European level to enable comparisons between countries and regions) was used as a source, specifically the section "Population and social conditions – "Education and training" ("Young people neither in employment nor in education and training by sex, age, citizenship and NUTS 2 regions (NEET rates)" "Early leavers from education and training by sex and citizenship").

The analysis is therefore oriented on two geographical levels: the first analyses the various indicators previously presented in the general Italian context and the second focuses on the four macro-regions into which the country can be divided (North-East, North-West, Centre and South) 6 . Thanks to the aid of some graphs created it is then possible to visually observe the variables taken into consideration in a comparison both spatially – considering the various macro-areas identified – and temporally – observing their trend over the years.

4 Cfr. M. Gentile Educational success and early school leaving: Indicators, European reference levels, and intervention strategies., CNOS Review, n.1 -2007.
5 hourhttp://eurydice.indire.it/structural-indicators-for-monitoring-education-and-training-systems-in-europe-2020-data-and-reforms-from-2015-to-date/

The phenomenon of premature abandonment and neet in Italy

Data on early school leaving in Italy from 2004 to 2020 among 18- to 24-year-olds show positive signs on the one hand and negative signs on the other: in the first case, because over the years the dropout rate appears to have decreased (at the antipodes of the reference years of the time period examined, in 2004 the percentage was 23,1% compared to 13,1% in 2020) [Figure 1] . However, in the last five years the phenomenon seems to have stabilized with percentages fairly close to each other. In the second case, however, it is a percentage that still exists, indicative of imbalances that depress the school system and the individual's overall education.

Considering, as mentioned, that the European Council had established that the European average early school leaving rate should not exceed 10% by 2010, Italy still ranks above the European target. In a European context, Eurostat data shows that only Malta, Spain, and Portugal have dropout rates higher than Italy's 7 % (as we will examine more closely later). On the other hand, as mentioned, there has been an improvement, albeit rather slow when measured by the decreasing percentage difference from year to year, likely a symptom of the equally slow implementation of education policies.

6 The conclusions also address a third level of analysis that focuses on Europe, so as to understand Italy's place within it.
7 M. Gentile, Educational Success and School Dropout. Indicators, European Reference Levels, and Intervention Strategies, CNOS Review, No. 1 - 2007.

YOUNG PEOPLE WHO LEAVE SCHOOLS EARLY – ITALY

NEET young people dropping out of school
Figure 1

By bringing the magnifying glass closer to the Italian question in its territorial macro-areas of the North East, North West, Centre and South, the data are interesting and with clear gaps between them: although in all cases (even if not homogeneously) there is a tendency to a decrease in the rate of premature school dropouts over the reference time, the South stands out as the most affected by this condition [Figure 2] . Lower percentages are instead found for the remaining three macro-areas: more specifically, in a decreasing sense, the North West has percentages followed initially by the North East and then the Centre, which from around 2011 see an inverse trend as the Centre from around 2020 does not see a decrease like the other areas, but a slight rise and subsequent stabilization. Looking again at the data at the ends of the reference time period (2004-2020), in fact,

  • The South sees a 27,6% against a 16,3%;
  • The Centre sees a 17,3% against a 11,5% (in this case, as in the next, with a fairly heterogeneous direction);
  • The North East experiences 19% compared to 9,9;
  • The North West experiences 22,1% compared to 11,8%;

Even a meso-level analysis shows that in all cases there is a decrease which then, however, experiences a certain stabilization of the phenomenon in the last five years, thus supporting the idea that the phenomenon is certainly more contained, but only contained and not on the path to suppression.

YOUNG PEOPLE WHO DROP OUT OF SCHOOL EARLY – MACORAREE ITALY

NEET young people dropping out of school
Figure 2
NEET young people dropping out of school

The different results across regions can be interpreted as a crystallization of the inequality between North and South in the country, which is also reflected in the educational sphere. Data from various studies and research converge on the fact that this condition is due to social, economic, cultural, and territorial issues: often, a lower family background (which is structured based on the family's employment, economic, and educational levels) and poorer educational infrastructure lead to a higher rate of school dropout and, ultimately, school dropout, and vice versa. This condition is more severe in the South than in the Center and North, where these indicators are, conversely, higher, resulting in a reduction in dropout.

Although more pronounced in the Southern regions, the data also shows that the phenomenon of school dropouts and early school leaving affects the North. In its 2012 Annual Labour Force Report, ISTAT specifies that the phenomenon, despite being a manifestation of social hardship and economic crisis, is also widespread in those areas of the country where, given the relatively easy job opportunities, young people are often forced to abandon their studies early. However, these same young people who find a job early are also the most likely to be excluded from the workforce and find it more difficult to re-enter it. 8 The ISTAT data observed, in fact, demonstrate significant percentages even for regions such as the autonomous province of Bolzano, Lombardy, and Piedmont (although still following Sicily, Puglia, and Campania).

Territorial differences

Although the data remains worrying, as it is not only persistent across the various macro-areas but also indicative of profound regional disparities, the (uneven and uneven) decline in all cases is also indicative of a greater push to prevent or at least reduce the phenomenon of early leavers. Indeed, the interventions implemented in Italy in this regard are diverse and could confirm the decline in the phenomenon. For example, in the wake of the 2000 Lisbon Agreement, among the measures implemented by Italy to combat early school leaving are a system for monitoring student attendance in national and regional systems, as well as a "student registry."

Established by Legislative Decree No. 769 of April 15, 2005, Article 3, it processes data on students' academic progress starting in the first year of primary school. The goal is to create a support system for schools through continuous student monitoring so as to intervene where necessary. To this end, the information collected includes socio-demographic data and information on academic progress (from the chosen field of study to the type of qualification obtained, midterm and final exams, and cases of absenteeism).

Furthermore, between 2007 and 2013, approximately €270 million was invested in the '4 Convergence Objective Regions' recognized by the EU , 9 as part of the PON Skills for Development with specific objective F (promoting academic success, equal opportunities, and social inclusion). With Circular 11666/2012, the Ministry of Education, Universities, and Research (MIUR) implemented Action 3 envisaged in the Action and Cohesion Plan, aimed at preventing and combating school dropout and early educational failure in specific areas10 of – not coincidentally – Sicily, Puglia, Campania, and Calabria. This demonstrates both the drive to reduce dropout and a greater need for this same drive in the southern areas of the country (especially in financial terms, as will be seen in the following paragraph).

8 M. Cozzolino, Motivation to study and school dropout – How to implement effective interventions in schools, Franco Angeli, 2014.
9 As they have a GDP below 75% of the European average.
10 Identified through the student registry as well as some INVALSI results.

The NEET phenomenon

Cited as a concept for the first time in European political discussions within the Europe 2020 flagship initiative "Youth on the Move" 11 , the NEET phenomenon refers to all individuals aged 15-29 who are neither legally employed nor in education for at least four consecutive weeks. Reducing this phenomenon impacts all areas with varying percentages, becoming a political objective of many policies . 12 Furthermore, much research reports how the "NEET" condition can negatively impact not only the country of residence and the national economy, but also the psychological and social conditions of those affected.

Some prevalent socioeconomic factors have been identified that can facilitate young people becoming and remaining in this condition. Among these, education stands out, as a low level of education triples the risk of falling into this condition, gender (women are 60% more likely to become NEET), disability (the risk increases by 40%), and a previous migration experience (with a 70% increased probability) . 13 The data reported in "The Condition of Youth in Italy – Youth Report 2014" show how the vast majority of young people sampled in 2014 state that job opportunities are scarce (55%) or limited (33%), despite many (as many as 80%) responding that they are willing to take on manual labor despite their training/education for a decent wage. Young people, regardless of their gender, state that Italy offers few job opportunities.

The “social class” factor

Social class plays an important role in the confidence of these young people in finding work: 90% of those belonging to a lower social class state that they have few/limited job opportunities, while young people in the upper social class are slightly more confident: 20% consider them "adequate". Again in the 2014 Youth Report, the majority of NEETs interviewed were single and were predominantly female 14 , often with the motivation of having to look after their children and unable to manage the duality of being career women and "ladies of the home". In the same analyses, the important data relating to "happiness"/personal satisfaction was revealed and NEETs emerged as unhappy and distrustful of the most diverse institutions. [Figure 3] and [Table 1]

NEET young people dropping out of school

11 Website https://www.eurodesk.it/youth-move.
12 For example, in April 2013, the European Commission adopted a proposal to the Council of the European Union to implement a Youth Guarantee in all Member States, including the goal of drastically reducing the number of NEETs. Another initiative with similar objectives by the European Commission is "Investing in Europe's Youth" of 7 December 2016.
13 Massimiliano Mascherini, Salvatore Lidia, Anja Meierkord, Jean-Marie Jungblut, “NEETs – Young people not in employment, education or training: Characteristics, costs and policy responses, European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions in Europe, 21 October 2012; Eurofund Publications.
14 It would be interesting to question the issue of gender inequality in the workplace.

Looking closely at the percentage of NEETs present in the Italian territory [Figure 4] , starting from the percentage value of 19,6%, it had an increasing trend until 2014 in which it reached the peak of 26,2%, and then underwent a slight decrease which in 2020 presented the value of 23,3% (it must be underlined, however, that the year 2020 and the future data for the year 2021 will have to be evaluated also taking into consideration the advent of the Covid-19 virus with its associated consequences).

YOUNG PEOPLE WHO DO NOT WORK OR STUDY – ITALY

NEET young people dropping out of school

Looking specifically at the four Italian regional macro-areas, the data that immediately catches the eye is the percentage difference between the South and the other macro-regions, especially with the North-East proving to be the territory with the lowest percentage of NEETs overall across the entire time period. The two macro-areas comprising the North, in no time period, have exceeded the percentage values ​​of 20%, a significant difference with the other two remaining macro-regions; furthermore, over time, they have become very close in terms of values, especially starting from 2011 in which the difference between the two macro-areas was simply 0,7 percentage points. Looking specifically at the data at the extremes of the reference time period (2004-2020), the extremes that appear are [figure 5 ]:

  • The South which proposes itself with 29,4% and which reaches 32,6%;
  • The Centre with its initial 14,9% and its final 19,9%;
  • The North-West which proposes 12,6% against 18,3%;
  • The North-East which sees a 10,3% and which ends with a 14,9%.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, and as further evidence of the information presented above, the autonomous province of Bolzano stands out as the Italian region with the lowest percentage of NEETs, with 12,4% in 2020, while Sardinia is the opposite, with 37,5%.

One hypothesis that can be advanced regarding this data is that, given the presence of much greater infrastructure and major economic hubs in the Nordic region, such as the two economic triangles of Milan, Turin, and Genoa and the more recent Venice, Padua, and Treviso, employment opportunities, including for young people, are plentiful. This could trigger a spiral of personal motivation that encourages young people to persist in their job search and to continue their studies, thus fostering better future employment opportunities.

NEET young people dropping out of school
Figure 5

Comparing the data for the variables "Young people who drop out of school early" and "Young people who neither work nor study", we can highlight some similarities, but above all some differences [Figure 6] . At first glance, the inverse trend of the two variables is immediately noticeable: "Young people who drop out of school early", despite having a higher initial percentage than the other variable (23,1%), has a decreasing and constant trend over the years. On the other hand, "Young people who neither work nor study" has an upward trend, with the highest peaks being seen in the two-year period 2013-2014 (with the respective values ​​of 26 and 26,2%), which were not reached again in the following years.

NEET young people dropping out of school
Figure 6

Continuing the comparison between the two variables [Figure 8] , but investigating the macro-regional situations identified, the first analogy that emerges is how the macro-area of ​​Southern Italy is the territory with the highest percentage in the entire time trend in both variables, the difference is that the percentage of young people who abandon studies is constantly decreasing, while the NEETs have increased over time to then settle at a percentage of 32-33%.

A clear difference between the variables is their trend: in all macro-regions there has been a significant decrease in school dropouts (only Central Italy shows more marked variations, especially a small increase between 2008 and 2011), with an overall increase in 2020. 15 Conversely, in most years, the percentage of "Young people neither in employment nor in education" appears to have increased, albeit slightly, until 2014 and then almost stabilized (slightly below previous values) in the following years. In this case too, Central Italy appears to be the macro-region with the most marked change; the data reports an initial percentage of 14,9% in 2004 and the highest macro-regional peak of 22,5% in 2014.

Given that the curves tend to move in opposite directions, to advance hypotheses, it would be necessary to assess what is disrupting the trend of one or the other: from the lack of overall job availability, to the fact that less educated people have fewer jobs, to the personal motivation of individuals to undertake one path or the other.

15 Here too, it is emphasized that the pandemic probably played an important role in this area.

NEET young people dropping out of school
Figure 7

Family income and public spending on education: a circumstantial situation for school dropout

An observational framework of variables inherent to the phenomenon of early leavers and NEETs in different Italian areas is insufficient if the surrounding issues are not also considered. Having defined the phenomenon as complex and multifaceted due to the economic and social spheres to which it refers and which it itself refers to, it is interesting to observe how these spheres move in the identified areas . 16 First, it is necessary to take a look at the economic condition of families in Italy so as to hypothesize that the different trends of the variables taken into consideration also respond to a certain financial situation . 17 Secondly, it is useful to observe how public spending on education is distributed across the peninsula so as to confirm the greater or lesser need in certain areas.

16 In this case, the data for the two-year period 2019-2020 are missing from the available database.
17 It should be noted that in the process of developing education policies, the right to education has been extended to the entire population, believing that this would be a sufficient tool to promote knowledge and ensure equal opportunities among citizens. This reasoning, however, has proven to be partly flawed: free and guaranteed education has not provided equal opportunities for all, but rather, these opportunities are strongly influenced by the environment in which a child is born and raised. Indeed, knowing the economic situation of families of origin in Italy can be useful. For further information, see http://www.aiel.it/page/old_paper/santoro_verde%20.pdf .
18 Financial crisis linked to the US housing market which, however, also produced a sharp drop in industrial production and a large increase in unemployment in many countries, including Italy.

As shown in Figure 8, the Italian trend in "average net family income (excluding imputed rents)" has shown a slight increase in value. The decrease seen in the years 2012-2013-2014 is linked to the onset of the effects of the 2008 crisis , 18 which hit Italy "late."

AVERAGE NET FAMILY INCOME – ITALY

NEET young people dropping out of school
Figure 8

Looking at the analysis of this indicator broken down into the different macro-areas [Figure 9] , it is clear that on a chronological level the two-year period 2017-2018 is the one in which all the macro-areas present the highest values, while the two-year period 2004-2005 is the one with the lowest values. 2017 is a particularly important year for the Central macro-area which shows a significant increase in average family income, while, also in this case, the South is the most "disadvantaged" macro-region or with the lowest average family incomes (and by a lot if compared to one of the two Northern macro-regions). Furthermore, the North in general presents a fairly linear and constant temporal trend, the differences in income in the different years are never excessively different (figure 8). Here too, the autonomous province of Bolzano stands out as an area with much higher net family incomes, almost double that of the region with the lowest income, Molise.

AVERAGE NET FAMILY INCOME – MACRO-AREAS OF ITALY

young people dropping out of school
Figure 9

Looking at the overall variables "Young people neither in employment nor education", "Young people who drop out of school early" and "Average net family income" [Figure 10] we note that, despite the slightly increasing trend of the first, the second, however, has shown a slight increase over the years (with the difference of the central macro-region which once again proves to be the area with the greatest variations in values ​​over the time period examined). It can certainly be hypothesized that the South appears to be the macro-region with the lowest average net family income also due to the presence of a higher percentage of NEETs than all other national areas with a higher percentage, therefore, of individuals who are not in employment compared to the North (which not coincidentally has a lower NEET rate).

young people dropping out of school
Figure 10

It's like a vicious circle: the reasons behind dropout often stem from families' cultural background, which, in turn, correlates with a given income. Therefore, to foster economic growth and reduce poverty, it's essential to upgrade the education system and invest in human capital development.

This is because there is an inversely proportional relationship between education and poverty: "The higher the level of education of the population, the lower the number of those living in poverty, since education fosters the development of knowledge and skills that maintain a high level of innovation and support competitiveness. The direct effect of education on reducing poverty is given by the increase in income, the indirect effect instead is given by the reduction of so-called "human poverty": having the possibility of adequately satisfying basic needs (food, water, sanitation, health services, housing, etc.), it becomes easier to raise living standards and personal care not only on a material level, but also on an intellectual, socio-relational level, etc." 19 This would also explain the high rate among those who not only do not follow an educational path, but are not even employed.

19. Capperucci D., The Assessment of Skills in Adulthood: The Contribution of Experiential Learning and the Reflective Approach, ETS, Pisa, 2007.

Considering the importance of investments in education, if we shift our attention to the indicator relating to public spending on education and training in Italy, we observe how, after a nearly constant trend, in 2009 we witnessed a slight growth and then a decline again [Figure 11] (undoubtedly due to the 2008 financial crisis). Even after this, we note how it remained fairly constant, confirming the fact that, like healthcare, education on the one hand is often subject to cuts that prevent a surge, and on the other that the sector nevertheless occupies a position that always allows for a basis of financial support. Education and healthcare are, in fact, the main areas of public spending.

PUBLIC FINAL CONSUMPTION SPENDING ON EDUCATION AND TRAINING – ITALY

young people dropping out of school
Figure 11

Even following the 2008 financial crisis, in fact, although to a lesser extent, among the fields in which public spending is most used are those relating to healthcare and education [Figure 12].

young people dropping out of school
Figure 12 - Source: Department of Economic Studies of Parma20

20 Graphs from A. Affuso, V. Bravi, Public Spending in Italy Before and After the Crisis, Department of Economics, University of Parma, 2014.

Comparing the two graphs, we see that the composition of public spending in Italy in the periods immediately before and after the financial crisis shows equal proportions, with a slight decrease in the percentage dedicated to education despite an overall increase, a symptom of ongoing cuts in sectors that are controllable in the short term. It should also be noted that over time, spending on education also responds to the various laws and reforms implemented in the sector, which have affected the systems of its provision and distribution.

Furthermore, it can depend on several factors: for example, certain fields of study require greater resources, so if students are not equally distributed across all regions among the different fields, the difference in spending could be explained by greater demand for those types of schools that require greater resource use. Furthermore, certain teaching staff can also be more or less expensive: for example, a teacher with greater seniority entails higher costs, as does a teacher on a fixed-term contract—even more so if appointed annually—thus regions with a higher proportion of teachers in these categories incur greater public spending.

Public spending on education can thus depend on various factors, and one indicator cannot generalise about the effectiveness or otherwise of resource allocation. However, it can provide an estimate of these phenomena if observed in comparison with the respective indicators, assuming that data trends coincide.

Indeed, if we look at the distribution of spending on education and training in the different areas of Italy, we can see how it exactly follows the gap between North and South (the Centre continues to occupy a median position) as the data shows a significantly higher spending for the South compared to the other areas and especially compared to the North 22 . At the same time, these areas are characterised respectively by higher and lower school dropouts. In this sense, it could be hypothesised that, considering the different proportions of dropouts between the South and the rest of Italy with a greater propensity for the former due to more degraded social, economic and territorial conditions, a higher public spending is necessary for this area compared to the others (the percentage of public spending in the South stands at around 6% while in the other areas of Italy it reaches half of this if not less, as in the case of the North West) [Figure 13].

PUBLIC FINAL CONSUMPTION SPENDING ON EDUCATION AND TRAINING – ITALIAN MACROAREES

young people dropping out of school
NEET young people dropping out of school
Figure 13

Indeed, based on the National Operational Programme (PON) illustrated in the previous paragraph, it can be seen that it was targeted at regions that effectively do not reach 75% of the European GDP average. Furthermore, considering the various reasons underlying a certain level of public spending on education, one can also consider a certain level of teacher turnover, a phenomenon that requires greater expenditure. Not only is this more pronounced in the South (which therefore requires greater expenditure), but it is also among the causes of school dropouts, thus once again suggesting the South's positioning.

This means that in the field of education more money does not necessarily translate into greater quality (despite the higher spending in the South, it is here that the condition of early-leavers and NEETs is more intense), but it is also clear that less money does not translate into greater quality, unless there are structural changes in the incentive and related financing systems 22.

NEETs and school dropouts: conclusions

The evidence this work has brought to light does not provide promising signs for the Italian educational situation, although it has improved somewhat over time: dropout rates are persistent (although currently at a lower percentage than in the past), as is their association with unemployment. These conditions reflect a continuing gap between Italy's different geographical areas, which has now become a structural characteristic of the country. Furthermore, the data becomes even more demoralizing when viewed from an international and European perspective in particular. Using Estat data on early leavers and NEETs , it can be observed that in 2020, the last year to which they date back, they continue to fail to augur well for our country, which stands out among the leaders for these indicators [Figure 14] . For early leavers , although the data was not collected for many countries, among those where it was possible to obtain them, it can be observed that Italy almost holds the record for this indicator (second to Spain which has long occupied an equally central position).

Based on the data available to us, the situation appears to be polarized: Northern European countries, with a universalistic welfare system, along with many former Soviet Union countries, are less affected by the phenomenon, while Southern European countries, characterized by a Mediterranean welfare system, although they have diminished the extent of the phenomenon over time, have not yet completely contained it. 23 However, the explanation could also be traced back to a different vertical stratification or tracking of educational systems: in some cases, choosing a major too early can discourage continued study. The same could be said for lesser or greater urbanization, with the former experiencing greater commuting from rural or mountainous areas, respectively, which encourages school dropouts (this could also explain the data from Northeast Italy).

21 If the data is interesting from a spatial perspective, it is equally interesting from a temporal perspective: the curve demonstrates, in fact, how in a synchronic direction spending does not experience significant variations but remains rather constant, projecting the national condition also along macro-regional lines.
22 M. Bordignon, A. Fontana, Federalism and Education: The Italian School System in the Context of Institutional Decentralization, Giovanni Agnelli Foundation, 2010
23 http://www.fedoa.unina.it/11637/1/De%20Falco%20Ciro%20Clemente%2029.pdf .

young people dropping out of school
Figure 14

NEETs and brain drain

Italy takes third place in the competition for countries with the highest percentage of young people neither in employment nor education , beaten only by Turkey and Montenegro (the data refers to a 2020 survey on a sample of young people aged 15-24) [Figure 15] . This third place is a position that has been maintained over time since already in 2007 Italy was third with 19%, preceded only by Bulgaria and Greece 25 . The countries that do not present a percentage (Wales, Scotland, the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland) did not provide data for the database (also for political reasons). In this case too, the Northern macro-region presents itself as the top seed with Norway (4,9%). Continental Europe also presents excellent values ​​with the Netherlands (4,5%) and Switzerland (6,4%).

It would be interesting to investigate the impact of the so-called "brain drain" from many countries on the economy of the host countries and, if so, whether this data could somehow impact this variable. During the 2009-2011 crisis, the countries that reported the best economic models, with consequent lower percentages of NEETs in their territory, turned out to belong to Continental Europe (especially Germany) and Northern Europe (specifically Scandinavia), in an intermediate position the Anglo-Saxon countries and, instead, with the worst performances, the regions of "Southern Europe" and the new member states in Europe. The ILO (International Labour Organization) 26 , through its research (2012), had suggested adopting two different types of policies to combat, specifically, youth unemployment (of which NEETs are a part), to reduce the risk of creating a "lost generation" in many European countries.

The focus of these policy recommendations was on adopting active labor policies and projects to assist young people in the transition from school to work. During the two-year crisis, it was evident that Germany addressed the dramatic situation without too many negative consequences by applying a flexible policy: with adjustments to working hours, improved relations between businesses and private individuals, and projects aimed at youth employment . 27

25 Youth Report 2014.
26 Reference website: https://www.ilo.org/global/lang–en/index.htm

NEET young people dropping out of school
Figure 15

Beyond what can be considered the European condition as a whole, it is important to intercept the Italian condition which, as is clear, does not appear to be optimal. This, however, must not lead to an apocalyptic reading of the future for young people, but rather be read as an alarm bell (which has been ringing for some time) for the institutions. Carneiro and Heckman (2003) demonstrate how early awareness intervention can curb school dropout and positively shape young people (reducing the social risk of contracting a lost generation ) with consequent greater benefits at an individual and social level (e.g. integration and continuity in the world of work) [Figure 16] . In this sense, the issue relating to family background as a reason behind the process of dispersion would also be attenuated, as scholars believe that subsequently remedying the disadvantages of the first years of life is costly and often ineffective, also because there is the risk of favouring children born into already favourable environments 28.

27 For more information on the relationship between the 2009-2011 crisis, policy, and NEETs, we recommend reading the article by Giovanni S.F. Bruno, Enrico Marelli, and Marcello Signorelli, “The Rise of NEETs and Youth Unemployment in EU Regions after the Crisis,” Comparative Economic Studies, 2014, 56, pp. 592-615 . Another recommended reading on the relationship between NEETs, crisis, and policy is the article by Stéphane Carcillo, Rodrigo Fernandez, Sebastian Konigs, and Andreea Minea, “NEET Youth in the Aftermath of the Crisis, Challenges and Policies,” in OECD Social, Employment, and Migration Working Papers, no. 164.

young people dropping out of school
Figure 16 - Source: Carneiro and Heckman

With similar objectives, the Europe 2020 Strategy 29 emphasizes the need to implement intervention measures to prevent school dropouts, starting in preschool and kindergarten, which are essential for subsequent learning stages, especially in terms of achievement and socialization. It recognizes that only by addressing the root cause of the problem can school dropout, and its ultimate consequences, such as dropping out, be prevented or at least contained. In this regard, the Strategy mandates that 95% of children between the ages of 4 and 6 attend early childhood education courses, introducing awareness-raising programs that improve the relationship between school, parents, and children: one more hope that that bell will stop ringing.

Emanuela Miccoli, Flavia Verona

Bibliographic and web references

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