Politics is increasingly turning to methods for gathering information about the electorate. Since 1936, when statisticians Gallup and Roper first correctly predicted Roosevelt's re-election through an opinion survey of a small representative sample, contrary to what other institutes had done with much larger numbers of people, the use of this type of instrument has steadily increased.
Total conditioning
Today via specific polls, questionnaires e interviews, political actors want to know the opinions and feelings of voters regarding their actions and those of others, so much so that it has now become an essential tool and on which they are practically dependent. The frequent use of "in.” however attests to a radical change in the relationship between representatives and represented, so much so that today we can speak of a “poll-driven leadership" that is, a strong influence on representatives and their decisions by public opinion and polls. The main purpose of parties, in addition to holding public office and pursuing public policies, is in fact to increase their electorate, maintaining the expectations of their core voters and possibly trying to increase them obviously in order to be re-elected. Even today in the current Italian political landscape we can observe how we are immersed in a perpetual election campaign and how politicians and journalists are always attentive to theapproval rating of the different parties and leaders.
Do what's right, not what they ask
The survey, however, was initially born in marketing and it helped companies understand what customers thought about their brand, products, and the services they offered. Only later did it invade politics. In fact, in a vision that today we would almost define as "romantic," many statesmen and political figures of the 900th century declared themselves opposed to this new mode of action.poll-driven": For Winston Churchill, in fact, this was not congenial to what is the pedagogical function of politicsThe true politician, the true statesman, does not have to please the voters but his task is, given the foresight that distinguishes him, to bring about solutions that others do not even see, and it is precisely on these assumptions that he bases his leadership; and not on satisfying particular interests. "Sondocracy" would also lead to a de-responsibility of the decision-maker since, as mentioned, his role is only to "satisfy" the voters. What voters individually ask for is not always what is best suited to effectively solving problems, and they don't always have all the (correct) information on the matter.
Program, leaders and voters
Today, however, voters' preferences are being explored starting from the construction of the program: the multiplicity of interests present in society is thus represented no longer using the ideological filter but as the mere sum of the preferences expressed by individual citizens, increasingly post-ideological, through surveyThe electoral platform is no longer the result of internal party debates or a reflection of that party's vision of society, but is shaped based on public opinion. In the current era of great electoral volatility, resorting to this practice can therefore represent a crucial step in a party's electoral success. We must therefore always be wary of those who promise us precisely what we ask for (because they know what we want), but carefully evaluate whether they actually have the ability to deliver. Similarly, given the ever-increasing importance of the party leader in contemporary politics, leadership is selected. The trust and consensus of party members is tested through polls, thus arriving at the crowning of the leader. the most popular, sometimes without going through primaries or internal discussions. According to some authors, even a leader's charisma is a strategically constructed trait, resulting from popularity polls. However, constant exposure to polls can also influence voters' votes during the election campaign, especially in cases of strong indecision: voters can shift toward a party that the polls predict as the winner with the so-called "effect bandwagon" or on the contrary it can go "to the aid" of that party which the forecasts show to be at a disadvantage in an almost unconventional way, through what is defined as "effect underdog".
Towards a correct use
The issue is therefore very complex and insidious because on the other hand in representative democracy It can be a powerful tool for demonstrating approval or otherwise of political action, not only during the electoral phase but also during the "government" phase, helping the system function. Especially in a period like this, when parties are less socially rooted and significantly weakened in terms of social representation, these can reconnect with the electorate precisely through the proper use of these means. Conversely, voters themselves can communicate directly with the parties, making their needs, concerns, and problems clear, and jointly planning. virtuous public policies.
Valerio Adolini
