The era of extremism is long gone, and people seem increasingly wary of taking clear political sides. Almost as a reaction, in a country emerging from a right-wing totalitarianism like ours, people tend to be much more judgmental of the extreme right than of an equally emphatic left. There's a certain paradox in this context, which, however, can be understandable given the vicissitudes of fascism . One need only look at our constitution to see how it prevents the centralization of power in an elite rather than in a single individual. All historical-political processes unfold in reaction to a previous bad experience that one seeks to avoid. According to the theory of the median voter , to which several political scholars have contributed, the political system ensures that the majority of voters always align themselves with a rather central and moderate ideological position.
The Hotteling model
Although it may seem strange, to better understand the median voter theory, we must begin our analysis with economics. Anthony Dows , an American political scientist, noted an analogy between the political and economic spheres. He specifically imported the economic phenomenon of strategic spatial competition among firms, hypothesizing that political contenders move by analogy within an ideological space where two completely opposing political visions exist at either end.
To better understand this theory, Hotteling's model (Figure 1) comes in handy . Suppose there is a village stretching along a road with houses evenly distributed on both sides. There are two bakers, A and B. We start from two assumptions: both bakers offer the same quality of bread at the same price, and the rational consumer will try to limit his efforts by going to the nearest shop. As can be seen from the positioning of A and B, B will cover a larger area of the market: its sales area extends from the far right to point M, which is located exactly in the center between the two competitors. Bakery A's sales area extends from the far left to point M. To expand its sales space, baker A will move to point AA, gaining the shaded market share. Baker B, in turn, will move its store to point BB, regaining the market share it previously lost. Both businesses, by moving towards the center, are trying to optimize their sales capacity.
Smithies: a not-so-superfluous detail
Arthur Smithies , an Australian economist, added a further element to Hotteling's model: elasticity of demand . The scholar asked himself how willing consumers at the extremes were to cover travel costs in order to satisfy their need for bread. It is clear that this pushes the initiative to create additional businesses that can satisfy the needs of these rather decentralized consumers. The risk is, in fact, the appearance of a bakery C, covering the area from point N to the far right (Figure 1). Similarly, politically speaking, extremist voters will no longer feel represented by increasingly ideologically moderate parties that are moving toward increasingly centrist ideas, just like the two bakeries located in increasingly central positions.
Downs: Let's think about the graphs
Anthony Downs, in his analysis of the median voter, adds a clarification: the variable distribution of voters along a continuum that runs from left to right (Figure 2). With the graph above, the scholar represents how voters are distributed more or less numerously along more or less ideological lines. We are faced with a bell-shaped graph in which the greatest number of voters is located exactly at the middle of the continuum. As we get closer and closer to the ends of the line, the number of voters also gradually decreases until there are none at all. In this dynamic, we have a model of centripetal competition in which the contenders are not very politically aligned; all of this means that the factions present the electorate with very similar, if not practically identical, programs. Voters in the center are also the most undecided and the most willing to change their minds about how to spend their vote; they are the most flexible, rather than those at the ends, who are locked into their ideas and absolutely unwilling to change. The parties will therefore focus on the uncertain voter who is very attractive in their eyes and will try to seduce him.
The Median Voter and Our Political Landscape
Being moderate politicians has become fashionable, but it's the population that has become so, and politics is transforming to reflect this reality. Many of today's political maneuvers have followed the median voter model. Matteo Renzi's success, despite everything, referendum aside, may be due to his approach to not being too left-wing while remaining within the Democratic Party. Matteo Salvini 's Northern League's outreach to central and southern Italy may also have been a way to gain more votes. The Five Star Movement, by not taking a stand and pursuing policies that were rather ambiguous regarding their ideological position, also obtained a large share of votes. Conversely, very radical parties like Forza Nuova , a neo-fascist and nationalist party, and the Italian Communist Party , of Marxist-Leninist inspiration, will not have received much support due to their radicalization. These are precisely the parties that Arthur Smithies would have marginalized in his model, as they satisfy the representational needs of voters with ideas too "strong" and extreme to be content with an ideology tempered by society's need for moderate representation. Just like the shopkeeper who opens Bakery C (Figure 1) to satisfy the needs of consumers who don't consider bread so essential that they have to travel all those miles to get there. By refraining from any political judgment and seeking to be as neutral as possible, reaching out to the median and undecided voter and seeking to win their votes is a genuine political strategy.
Philip Campo Antico
